Aam Aadmi Party’s 32 Percent Vote Share is an Illusion

A couple of days ago, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) did a press conference informing the country that it’s getting 32 percent vote share in the upcoming Delhi Assembly Elections. According to Dr. Yogendra Yadav, psephologist turned card holder of Aam Aadmi Party, the Congress with 28 percent votes will be second and BJP with 24 percent votes will be third. How Aam Aadmi party arrived at these numbers? Well, it has done a survey.

In best of my estimation, Aam Aadmi Party’s 32 Percent Vote Share is an Illusion. And the Delhi Assembly Elections 2013 will soon prove this. Why I think so?

If Congress is not doing good work in Delhi, or if it has to suffer the anti-incumbency; then the main opposition party in Delhi, the BJP must be benefiting from this. AAP can’t benefit from Congress’s loss, because of the two reasons:

1) In Delhi there are broadly two ideologies: Secular and Hinduttva. Although no particular party can claim to be the sole player of any of the two ideologies, still Congress and BJP are seen as the flag-bearers of the Secular and Hinduttva ideologies respectively. Agree with it or not, the electorate will vote primarily on the basis of these two ideologies. The question of development and promises will always be there, but a voter will see development from ideological viewpoints.

2) Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) sits in a tricky situation in Delhi. A sizable section of the crowd which was seen during its Jan Lokpal Rally at Ramlila Maidan and afterwards was anti-Congress. Since in Delhi, BJP is the principal opposition to Congress; hence the bulk of this crowd is of pro BJP ideology. This became evident when the moment Kejriwal and team started attacking the BJP; the crowds in its rallies dwindled to a couple of hundreds.

Aam Aadmi Party does have committed supporters; but since the party is new, such committed supporters are significantly less compared to the BJP and the Congress. On the voting day,  AAP will get the votes of its committed supporters and a little bit of floating votes. Bulk of the votes will go to the BJP and the Congress.

To sum up, I’m not doubting the credibility of Dr. Yogendra Yadav or the survey he was quoting. What I’m trying to state is that many of the respondents who told the surveyors that they will vote for AAP will vote for BJP on the election day. That’s why the entire survey looked overturned.

AAP’s survey must be an alarm bell for those voters who think that 32 percent of Delhi voters will vote for Aam Aadmi Party. They must remember that Delhi voters will vote on ideology. Don’t believe me? Well, wait for the results of Delhi Assembly Elections 2013.