Patidar rising resulted in Anandiben Patel’s downfall?… NO!

Would you call the Gujarat chief minister, Anandiben Patel’s resignation yesterday, dramatic?

Depends on how we look at the things.

Some major Media houses want you to see Gujarat chief minister Anandiben Patel’s downfall a result of Patel’s inability to deal with the political crisis arising out of Patidars reservation demand.

I don’t think the resignation is the result of Patidar rising.

Actually the resignation is the result of recent brutalization of Dalits in Una. This is the unrest which actually made the BJP replace Anandiben. But the resignation is NOT sought by BJP top leadership keeping in mind the 2017 Gujarat Assembly Elections. Anandiben has to resign because of Uttar pradesh elections in 2017. You can add Punjab to this calculation as well.

With sizable Dalit population in Uttar pradesh, the BJP top leadership became uncomfortable the moment the reality of clear caste division based on Hindu religious lines became public in recent times. Up till now, the Development Model of Gujarat was somehow misleading people about this reality. The very visible atrocities on Dalits by Hindutva brigade in Gujarat, meant that all is not well in Modi’s Gujarat. It’s important here to note that Gujarat as BJP’s Hindutva Laboratory has already reached a level where the party has neatly chunked out such a vote share for itself that no unrest, whether it be of Patidars’ or Dalits’, can harm its ambitions in the state polls in 2017.

The States where the party can face the results of Dalit and patidar uprising are Uttar Pradesh and Punjab.

Narendra Modi and Amit Shah as party people always plan their moves keeping in view the states where the party has to fight elections in near future.

In Uttar Pradesh where BJP cannot divide votes on Hindutva alone and will have to answer the questions about atrocities on Dalits in Gujarat, muslims in general and huge price rise in the last two years; will not want the incidents happening in Gujarat aggravate its poll prospects in UP, where BSP is a more credible face for Dalits and; Congress with its ability to curb prices on the price rise issue. SP will take a sizable vote chunk with it as well.

Right now it appears that the next move of Mr. Narendra Modi, as party man, will be to surprise majority of media by his choice of Gujarat CM.

But it appears that the CM will neither be some Patel or Dalit. He will be some neutral figure. And the gender will be ‘HE’. For obvious reasons.

If you look at Anandiben’s resignation this way, then it was not surprising.

Was it dramatic? It may be. As even when it was clearly written on cards, much drama was enacted around it.